Friday Morning Coffee Nr. 71: Point taken

220819 Friday Morning Coffee

Friday Morning Coffee Nr. 71: Point taken

Our base scenario remains that we are in an environment of slowing economic momentum but certainly not under the threat of an imminent recession. The volatility seen during the month of August in financial markets shows to what extent investors are nervous of a severe economic downturn. The flight to perceived safety has taken proportions which make us wonder to what extend these safe havens are not becoming overly risky now as prices paid disconnect from economic reality. A 10 year German government bond yielding minus 0.28% is for us more a sign of capitulation by investors seeking shelter than a credible investment. Growth stocks are also seen as a safe haven against economic turmoil and their valuations have reached extremes compared to value stocks.